{"paper":{"title":"The Extremity Premium: Sentiment Regimes and Adverse Selection in Cryptocurrency Markets","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["q-fin.CP"],"primary_cat":"q-fin.ST","authors_text":"Murad Farzulla","submitted_at":"2026-02-01T09:31:44Z","abstract_excerpt":"Using the Crypto Fear & Greed Index and Bitcoin daily data, sentiment extremity predicts excess uncertainty beyond realized volatility. Extreme fear and extreme greed regimes exhibit significantly higher spreads than neutral periods -- the \"extremity premium.\" Extended validation on the full Fear & Greed history (2018--2026, N = 2,896) confirms the finding: within-volatility-quintile comparisons show a premium ($p < 0.001$, pooled volatility-demeaned Cohen's $d = 0.21$ -- a post-hoc, exploratory test, as the pre-specified within-quintile endpoint does not survive multiple-testing correction; r"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2602.07018","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2602.07018/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}