{"paper":{"title":"A two-stage prediction model for heterogeneous effects of many treatment options: application to drugs for Multiple Sclerosis","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["stat.AP"],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"Andrea Manca, Ewout Steyerberg, Fabio Pellegrini, Georgia Salanti, Konstantina Chalkou, Matthias Egger","submitted_at":"2020-04-28T12:57:26Z","abstract_excerpt":"Treatment effects vary across different patients and estimation of this variability is important for clinical decisions. The aim is to develop a model to estimate the benefit of alternative treatment options for individual patients. Hence, we developed a two-stage prediction model for heterogeneous treatment effects, by combining prognosis research and network meta-analysis methods when individual patient data is available. In a first stage, we develop a prognostic model and we predict the baseline risk of the outcome. In the second stage, we use this baseline risk score from the first stage a"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2004.13464","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2004.13464/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}