{"paper":{"title":"Nonparametric Bayesian Policy Learning","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"econ.EM","authors_text":"Haonan Ye","submitted_at":"2026-05-16T16:37:55Z","abstract_excerpt":"I propose Nonparametric Bayesian Policy Learning (NBPL) as a framework for uncertainty-aware treatment choice. I consider a decision-maker (DM) seeking to select an expected welfare-maximizing treatment rule using observable characteristics. A key observation is that, for a given welfare criterion and policy class, uncertainty about welfare-relevant objects is entirely induced by uncertainty about a reduced-form distribution. I assume the DM places a nonparametric Dirichlet process prior on this reduced-form parameter and uses the resulting posterior to conduct inference on optimal treatment a"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2605.17068","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2605.17068/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[{"name":"ai_meta_artifact","ran_at":"2026-05-19T22:33:23.815935Z","status":"skipped","version":"1.0.0","findings_count":0},{"name":"claim_evidence","ran_at":"2026-05-19T22:21:57.754805Z","status":"completed","version":"1.0.0","findings_count":0}],"snapshot_sha256":"5a930845979f57452f48d08e9c246c74bec8188e0b1409ef00400b70fb8f9813"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}