{"paper":{"title":"Why Has Predicting Downstream Capabilities of Frontier AI Models with Scale Remained Elusive?","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.AI","cs.CL"],"primary_cat":"cs.LG","authors_text":"Adam Ibrahim, Brando Miranda, Gabriel Mukobi, Hailey Schoelkopf, Herbie Bradley, Rylan Schaeffer, Sanmi Koyejo, Stella Biderman, Varun Madan","submitted_at":"2024-06-06T17:46:56Z","abstract_excerpt":"Predicting changes from scaling advanced AI systems is a desirable property for engineers, economists, governments and industry alike, and, while a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, predictable scaling behavior on downstream capabilities remains elusive. While many factors are certainly responsible, this paper identifies a significant factor that makes predicting scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question answering benchmarks challenging and illuminates a path towards making such downstream evaluations predictable with scale. Using five mod"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2406.04391","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2406.04391/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}