{"paper":{"title":"Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in European countries: technical description update","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["q-bio.PE","stat.ME"],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Axel Gandy, Azra Ghani, Charles Whittaker, Christl A. Donnelly, Harrison Zhu, Helen Coupland, H Juliette T Unwin, Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, Jeffrey W Eaton, Lucia Callizo, Lucy C Okell, Michaela A C Vollmer, Neil M. Ferguson, Nora Schmit, Pablo N P Guzman, Peter Winskill, Samir Bhatt, Seth Flaxman, Steven Riley, Swapnil Mishra, Thomas A Mellan, Tresnia Berah, Xiaoyue Xi","submitted_at":"2020-04-23T17:38:23Z","abstract_excerpt":"Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions including case isolation, the closure of schools and universities, banning of mass gatherings and/or public events, and most recently, wide-scale social distancing including local and national lockdowns.\n  In this technical update, we extend a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model that infers the impact of these interventions and estimates the number of inf"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2004.11342","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2004.11342/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}