{"paper":{"title":"The Potential Welfare Gains from Curtailment Trading Under Non-Firm Interconnection","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"Bilateral curtailment credit trading can reach every allocation a central planner could devise for non-firm grid connections.","cross_cats":["cs.SY"],"primary_cat":"eess.SY","authors_text":"Ali Amadeh, Charlotte Gressel, K. Max Zhang, Richard Mahuze","submitted_at":"2026-05-01T14:27:18Z","abstract_excerpt":"Rapid growth of large loads led by data centers is straining grid capacity. These loads increasingly accept curtailment risk through non-firm interconnection agreements to gain faster grid access, expanding the pool of consumers subject to mandatory disconnection during supply shortfalls. Yet, blunt rules assign curtailment without reference to the wide variation in the value consumers place on avoiding curtailment, often captured by the value of lost load (VOLL). This paper introduces the network-constrained Curtailment Credit Market (CCM), a mechanism in which agents submit bids that determi"},"claims":{"count":4,"items":[{"kind":"strongest_claim","text":"We prove that the bilateral credit flow representation can reach every curtailment allocation available to an omniscient central planner (feasible-set equivalence), so the bilateral flow structure introduces no loss of allocative capability.","source":"verdict.strongest_claim","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C1","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"weakest_assumption","text":"Under truthful bidding, the CCM achieves the planner's total value of served load, matching the planner's allocative benchmark when bids reflect true interruption costs.","source":"verdict.weakest_assumption","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C2","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"one_line_summary","text":"The network-constrained Curtailment Credit Market reaches every feasible curtailment allocation of a central planner and raises total value of served load by 1.24-1.83 times versus pro-rata on tested systems.","source":"verdict.one_line_summary","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C3","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"headline","text":"Bilateral curtailment credit trading can reach every allocation a central planner could devise for non-firm grid connections.","source":"verdict.pith_extraction.headline","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C4","attestation":"unclaimed"}],"snapshot_sha256":"7a14c1d8a06cb57b7d012b825434030852379bc1a585a3e0e8a716381bb5abea"},"source":{"id":"2605.00690","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":"9c63c517-7dd6-4d3e-a665-c4bd433b5890","model_set":{"reader":"grok-4.3"},"created_at":"2026-05-09T19:22:29.638200Z","strongest_claim":"We prove that the bilateral credit flow representation can reach every curtailment allocation available to an omniscient central planner (feasible-set equivalence), so the bilateral flow structure introduces no loss of allocative capability.","one_line_summary":"The network-constrained Curtailment Credit Market reaches every feasible curtailment allocation of a central planner and raises total value of served load by 1.24-1.83 times versus pro-rata on tested systems.","pipeline_version":"pith-pipeline@v0.9.0","weakest_assumption":"Under truthful bidding, the CCM achieves the planner's total value of served load, matching the planner's allocative benchmark when bids reflect true interruption costs.","pith_extraction_headline":"Bilateral curtailment credit trading can reach every allocation a central planner could devise for non-firm grid connections."},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2605.00690/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[{"name":"doi_compliance","ran_at":"2026-05-19T17:55:58.030074Z","status":"completed","version":"1.0.0","findings_count":0}],"snapshot_sha256":"e44cdb598f3e2271513a849ae8fd421460a56306ae8dfa43c54da2d68cb17c4d"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}