{"paper":{"title":"State-resolved multimodal contributions to stratospheric polar vortex predictability","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"Stratospheric polar vortex predictability is dominated by persistence of the leading state on short timescales but draws from higher-order structures and tropospheric variability on longer ones.","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","authors_text":"Chunhua Zeng, Dan Zhao, Shuo Yang, Tingting Xue, Xiaosong Chen, Yongwen Zhang","submitted_at":"2026-05-13T12:13:13Z","abstract_excerpt":"The dynamical basis of stratospheric polar vortex predictability remains unclear, particularly the relative roles of persistence, structural variability, and cross-level coupling. Here we provide a state-resolved and quantitative framework using eigen microstate theory applied to ERA5 geopotential height fields, enabling attribution of predictability to dynamically coherent circulation states via a mesoscopic Granger-causality approach. We show that short-term predictability is dominated by persistence of the leading stratospheric state, whereas extended predictability arises from higher-order"},"claims":{"count":4,"items":[{"kind":"strongest_claim","text":"We show that short-term predictability is dominated by persistence of the leading stratospheric state, whereas extended predictability arises from higher-order stratospheric structures and tropospheric variability.","source":"verdict.strongest_claim","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C1","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"weakest_assumption","text":"That the eigen microstates extracted from geopotential height fields represent dynamically coherent circulation states whose causal influences can be meaningfully quantified by mesoscopic Granger causality.","source":"verdict.weakest_assumption","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C2","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"one_line_summary","text":"Stratospheric polar vortex predictability is multimodal, with short-term forecasts dominated by persistence of the leading state and extended forecasts arising from higher-order stratospheric structures plus tropospheric variability.","source":"verdict.one_line_summary","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C3","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"headline","text":"Stratospheric polar vortex predictability is dominated by persistence of the leading state on short timescales but draws from higher-order structures and tropospheric variability on longer ones.","source":"verdict.pith_extraction.headline","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C4","attestation":"unclaimed"}],"snapshot_sha256":"0ccbe3d7023b98e194a27ee49fd9ebe6b72844798b3d885f789e12d6764d1549"},"source":{"id":"2605.13417","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":"498e6eaa-40d8-4a43-b26f-e5390d3e9828","model_set":{"reader":"grok-4.3"},"created_at":"2026-05-14T18:24:57.673368Z","strongest_claim":"We show that short-term predictability is dominated by persistence of the leading stratospheric state, whereas extended predictability arises from higher-order stratospheric structures and tropospheric variability.","one_line_summary":"Stratospheric polar vortex predictability is multimodal, with short-term forecasts dominated by persistence of the leading state and extended forecasts arising from higher-order stratospheric structures plus tropospheric variability.","pipeline_version":"pith-pipeline@v0.9.0","weakest_assumption":"That the eigen microstates extracted from geopotential height fields represent dynamically coherent circulation states whose causal influences can be meaningfully quantified by mesoscopic Granger causality.","pith_extraction_headline":"Stratospheric polar vortex predictability is dominated by persistence of the leading state on short timescales but draws from higher-order structures and tropospheric variability on longer ones."},"references":{"count":39,"sample":[{"doi":"10.1126/science.1063315","year":2001,"title":"Baldwin and Timothy J","work_id":"618d8cea-fd7e-46a4-8266-f11e1a29bfc2","ref_index":1,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false},{"doi":"10.1029/2019jd030923","year":2020,"title":"Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Amy H. Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Bel´ en Ayarzag¨ uena, Mark P. Baldwin, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Jason C. Furtado, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Peter Hitchcock, Alexey Y. Karpechko, ","work_id":"6b73cf06-4bf8-4e02-abe8-e50de9c4c195","ref_index":2,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false},{"doi":"10.1029/1999jd900445","year":1999,"title":"Baldwin and Timothy J","work_id":"49235afa-c5ca-4c3a-b30b-bddf5677e5e5","ref_index":3,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false},{"doi":"","year":null,"title":"David W. J. Thompson and John M. Wallace. Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. part i: Month-to-month variability.Journal of Climate, 13(5):1000–1016,","work_id":"0d7d1e70-cd13-486e-b310-acc683287abc","ref_index":4,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false},{"doi":"10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013","year":2000,"title":"Journal of Climate , author =","work_id":"e6ce55fe-5f83-4f94-9b68-b4eef13b14f9","ref_index":5,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false}],"resolved_work":39,"snapshot_sha256":"45bc778ab48f54ea1f9cddd84761c79cf7cb99821984257a8e90435bc25748b6","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}