{"paper":{"title":"A continuous-time Markov chain framework for population size estimation from multi-list data: accounting for absorbing lists and asymmetric interactions","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["stat.AP"],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"Andrew Titman, Oph\\'elie Schaller, Rachel McCrea","submitted_at":"2026-05-20T15:15:56Z","abstract_excerpt":"We introduce a continuous-time Markov chain framework for estimating population size from multi-list data, which allows directional interactions to be modelled and can accommodate absorbing lists, such as death records, or more general data collection processes. The standard model of the continuous-time Markov chain framework and the log-linear model for multi-list data are equivalent when lists are independent and we show empirically that they give similar results in the presence of dependencies between lists. Through a simulation study, we highlight the need to account for an absorbing list "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2605.21283","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2605.21283/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}