{"paper":{"title":"Equilibrium Causal Digital Twins: Validation, Transport, and Identification Limits","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.MA","cs.SY","eess.SY","math.OC"],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"Faraz Dadgostari, Neda Nazemi","submitted_at":"2026-07-23T05:07:51Z","abstract_excerpt":"Digital twins are often used to predict how a system would respond to an intervention. In systems with feedback, a twin must reproduce an equilibrium counterfactual, and a twin developed in one domain may fail after mechanisms change. We study when these predictions can be validated and transported. For equilibrium causal games, we give conditions on the mechanisms, equilibrium selection, and intervention design under which agreement with experimental distributions identifies the counterfactual of interest. We show why agreement of means and covariances is insufficient for distributional queri"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.21667","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.21667/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}