{"paper":{"title":"Visualizing and forecasting subnational life-table death counts: Gap forecasting methods","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["stat.AP"],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"Andrea Nigri, Han Lin Shang","submitted_at":"2026-07-08T11:21:39Z","abstract_excerpt":"Subnational life-table death counts are highly correlated across time and space and differ by gender. While these associations are helpful in improving forecasts through joint modeling, less attention has been paid to identifying and understanding mortality disparities in gender and regional gaps. We propose a forecasting framework to model and forecast female life-table death counts at the national or subnational level, and to model and forecast the associated gender gap. For either females or males, we could forecast national life-table death counts and the regional gap relative to national "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.07284","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.07284/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}