{"paper":{"title":"Efficient Competitions and Online Learning with Strategic Forecasters","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.GT"],"primary_cat":"cs.LG","authors_text":"Anish Thilagar, Bo Waggoner, Rafael Frongillo, Robert Gomez","submitted_at":"2021-02-16T18:48:37Z","abstract_excerpt":"Winner-take-all competitions in forecasting and machine-learning suffer from distorted incentives. Witkowski et al. 2018 identified this problem and proposed ELF, a truthful mechanism to select a winner. We show that, from a pool of $n$ forecasters, ELF requires $\\Theta(n\\log n)$ events or test data points to select a near-optimal forecaster with high probability. We then show that standard online learning algorithms select an $\\epsilon$-optimal forecaster using only $O(\\log(n) / \\epsilon^2)$ events, by way of a strong approximate-truthfulness guarantee. This bound matches the best possible ev"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2102.08358","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2102.08358/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}