{"paper":{"title":"Empirical Characterization of Inference-Time Elicited Probability Transformations in Large Language Models","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.AI"],"primary_cat":"cs.CL","authors_text":"Abhinav Kochar, Mike Farmer, Yugyung Lee","submitted_at":"2026-02-26T20:52:27Z","abstract_excerpt":"Large language models increasingly rely on inference-time procedures such as chain-of-thought reasoning, self-refinement, retrieval augmentation, and verifier-guided revision, yet the structure of elicited probability transformations under these procedures remains poorly understood. We study externally elicited probability assignments over candidate answers and observe recurring approximate log-ratio relationships: \\[ \\log \\tilde q_t(i) = \\alpha_t \\left( \\log q_t(i) + \\log b_t(i) \\right) + c_t, \\] where $q_t$ and $\\tilde q_t$ are pre- and post-elicitation probabilities, $b_t$ is an externally "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2603.19262","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2603.19262/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}