{"paper":{"title":"Bayesian Wind Tunnels for Model Selection","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["stat.ML"],"primary_cat":"cs.LG","authors_text":"Abhay Parekh, Siddhartha R Dalal, Vishal Misra","submitted_at":"2026-07-01T04:05:08Z","abstract_excerpt":"Prior work has shown that transformers can perform exact Bayesian filtering within a fixed\n  hypothesis class. Can they also perform Bayesian model selection -- identifying the correct\n  hypothesis class from data? We introduce model-selection Bayesian wind tunnels: controlled\n  environments where ground-truth posteriors over hypothesis classes are available in closed\n  form. Using fixed-point-free involutions -- whose defining property f(f(x))=x is purely\n  relational -- a 2.8M-parameter transformer achieves 0.01-bit entropy agreement with the\n  Bayesian optimum (3 seeds), with both integer t"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.19379","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.19379/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}