{"paper":{"title":"Modeling Epidemic Spread: A Gaussian Process Regression Approach","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.SY","eess.SY","physics.soc-ph"],"primary_cat":"stat.ML","authors_text":"Baike She, Lei Xin, Matthew Hale, Philip E. Par\\'e","submitted_at":"2023-12-14T22:45:01Z","abstract_excerpt":"Modeling epidemic spread is critical for informing policy decisions aimed at mitigation. Accordingly, in this work we present a new data-driven method based on Gaussian process regression (GPR) to model epidemic spread through the difference on the logarithmic scale of the infected cases. We bound the variance of the predictions made by GPR, which quantifies the impact of epidemic data on the proposed model. Next, we derive a high-probability error bound on the prediction error in terms of the distance between the training points and a testing point, the posterior variance, and the level of ch"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2312.09384","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2312.09384/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}