{"paper":{"title":"City-level energy and emission assessment based on 20+ million electric vehicle registrations in China","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"Analysis of 20 million EV registrations across Chinese cities shows efficiency gains of 31-213 MJ per 100 km alongside carbon intensities varying from 18 to 270 gCO2 per km.","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"physics.soc-ph","authors_text":"Hong Yuan, Minda Ma, Nan Zhou, Xin Ma, Yanqiao Deng, Zhili Ma","submitted_at":"2025-11-25T18:08:51Z","abstract_excerpt":"China, the world's largest electric vehicle (EV) market, plays a pivotal role in global decarbonization of the transport sector. We present the first high-resolution assessment of EV adoption in 295 cities, utilizing more than 20 million registrations of 586 EV models tracked monthly from 2022 to 2024 and projecting transition pathways to 2035. Real-world data reveal that EVs are 30.9-212.8 megajoules per 100 km more energy efficient than internal combustion vehicles, yet their carbon intensities range from 18.2 to 270.4 gCO2/km among provinces. The limited electrification of hybrids means tha"},"claims":{"count":4,"items":[{"kind":"strongest_claim","text":"Real-world data reveal that EVs are 30.9-212.8 megajoules per 100 km more energy efficient than internal combustion vehicles, yet their carbon intensities range from 18.2 to 270.4 gCO2/km among provinces. Scenario projections suggest that emissions will peak about 2030 at 21.1-30.9 megatonnes of CO2 and decline by 2035 under continued market transition.","source":"verdict.strongest_claim","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C1","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"weakest_assumption","text":"The 2035 emission projections rest on assumed rates of continued EV market transition and electrification of hybrids that are not validated against external forecasts or sensitivity tests in the provided abstract.","source":"verdict.weakest_assumption","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C2","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"one_line_summary","text":"Large-scale EV registration data shows electric vehicles use 30.9-212.8 MJ/100 km less energy than internal combustion vehicles but produce 18.2-270.4 gCO2/km depending on province, with emissions projected to peak around 2030 then fall by 2035.","source":"verdict.one_line_summary","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C3","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"headline","text":"Analysis of 20 million EV registrations across Chinese cities shows efficiency gains of 31-213 MJ per 100 km alongside carbon intensities varying from 18 to 270 gCO2 per km.","source":"verdict.pith_extraction.headline","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C4","attestation":"unclaimed"}],"snapshot_sha256":"bda0313358d9d280a9973fb873348a891668bc5b93e6c9bda265b511e4f300d9"},"source":{"id":"2511.20742","kind":"arxiv","version":4},"verdict":{"id":"7b3a6cf2-7a09-4067-bc76-ae29bd99f50f","model_set":{"reader":"grok-4.3"},"created_at":"2026-05-17T04:32:24.620881Z","strongest_claim":"Real-world data reveal that EVs are 30.9-212.8 megajoules per 100 km more energy efficient than internal combustion vehicles, yet their carbon intensities range from 18.2 to 270.4 gCO2/km among provinces. Scenario projections suggest that emissions will peak about 2030 at 21.1-30.9 megatonnes of CO2 and decline by 2035 under continued market transition.","one_line_summary":"Large-scale EV registration data shows electric vehicles use 30.9-212.8 MJ/100 km less energy than internal combustion vehicles but produce 18.2-270.4 gCO2/km depending on province, with emissions projected to peak around 2030 then fall by 2035.","pipeline_version":"pith-pipeline@v0.9.0","weakest_assumption":"The 2035 emission projections rest on assumed rates of continued EV market transition and electrification of hybrids that are not validated against external forecasts or sensitivity tests in the provided abstract.","pith_extraction_headline":"Analysis of 20 million EV registrations across Chinese cities shows efficiency gains of 31-213 MJ per 100 km alongside carbon intensities varying from 18 to 270 gCO2 per km."},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2511.20742/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":2,"snapshot_sha256":"3473789e79c26bd52ab49c75cc1edea34c16a4e70a3d65e641c638f2a3151bbe"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}