{"paper":{"title":"The Poisson Tail Conjecture for Primes in Short Intervals","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["math.PR"],"primary_cat":"math.NT","authors_text":"Abhishek Jha","submitted_at":"2026-05-21T20:36:05Z","abstract_excerpt":"In 1976, Gallagher showed that, conditional on the Hardy--Littlewood conjectures, the number of primes below $x$ in a randomly chosen short interval of length $\\lambda \\log x$ asymptotically follows a Poisson distribution with mean $\\lambda$. Correspondingly, the normalized gaps between consecutive primes follow an exponential distribution, provided that the scaling parameter $\\lambda$ is fixed. We investigate the validity and limitations of the associated folklore Poisson Tail Conjecture as $\\lambda$ is allowed to grow. For \\edit{slowly growing} $\\lambda$, and conditional on a strong variant "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2605.23014","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2605.23014/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}