{"paper":{"title":"Missing Links in Public Email and Covert Networks: A Comparative Evaluation of Link Prediction, Hyperlink Prediction, and ERGM Estimation","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"cs.SI","authors_text":"Moses Boudourides","submitted_at":"2026-05-21T15:19:32Z","abstract_excerpt":"We study missing-link inference in partially observed networks by systematically comparing dyadic link prediction (LP) with hyperlink prediction (HP) and an estimation-based ERGM comparator. LP serves as the primary baseline, using classical heuristics computed on the observed graph. HP extends this framework by scoring candidate higher-order structures (cliques) via lifted dyadic scores and via the CHEbyshev Spectral HyperlInk pREdictor (CHESHIRE). All methods are evaluated under a common masking protocol that removes dyadic evidence induced by held-out hyperlinks to ensure comparability. Acr"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2605.22606","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2605.22606/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}