{"paper":{"title":"How Many Human Survey Respondents is a Large Language Model Worth? An Uncertainty Quantification Perspective","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.AI","cs.LG"],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"Chengpiao Huang, Kaizheng Wang, Yuhang Wu","submitted_at":"2025-02-25T02:07:29Z","abstract_excerpt":"Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to simulate survey responses, but synthetic data can be misaligned with the human population, leading to unreliable inference. We develop a general framework that converts LLM-simulated responses into reliable confidence sets for population parameters of human responses, quantifying the uncertainty induced by the human-LLM misalignment. The key design choice is the number of simulated responses: too many produce overly narrow sets with poor coverage, while too few yield overly wide and uninformative sets dominated by stochastic noise. We propo"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2502.17773","kind":"arxiv","version":5},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2502.17773/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}