{"paper":{"title":"Gambling scores in earthquake prediction analysis","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"physics.geo-ph","authors_text":"G. Molchan, L. Romashkova","submitted_at":"2010-05-27T12:12:28Z","abstract_excerpt":"The number of successes 'n' and the normalized measure of space-time alarm 'tau' are commonly used to characterize the strength of an earthquake prediction method and the significance of prediction results. To evaluate better the forecaster's skill, it has been recently suggested to use a new characteristic, the gambling score R, which incorporates the difficulty of guessing each target event by using different weights for different alarms. We expand the class of R-characteristics and apply these to the analysis of results of the M8 prediction algorithm. We show that the level of significance "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1005.5041","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}