{"paper":{"title":"Predicting phenological events using event-history analysis","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"James V. Zidek, Nathaniel Newlands, Song Cai","submitted_at":"2010-09-20T23:58:59Z","abstract_excerpt":"This paper presents an approach to phenology, one based on the use of a method developed by the authors for event history data. Of specific interest is the prediction of the so-called \"bloom--date\" of fruit trees in the agriculture industry and it is this application which we consider, although the method is much more broadly applicable. Our approach provides sensible estimate for a parameter that interests phenologists -- Tbase, the thresholding parameter in the definition of the growing degree days (GDD). Our analysis supports scientists' empirical finding: the timing of a phenological event"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1009.3970","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}