{"paper":{"title":"How Much More Probable is \"Much More Probable\"? Verbal Expressions for Probability Updates","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"cs.AI","authors_text":"Christopher Elsaesser, Max Henrion","submitted_at":"2013-03-27T19:37:47Z","abstract_excerpt":"Bayesian inference systems should be able to explain their reasoning to users, translating from numerical to natural language.  Previous empirical work has investigated the correspondence between absolute probabilities and linguistic phrases.  This study extends that work to the correspondence between changes in probabilities (updates) and relative probability phrases, such as \"much more likely\" or \"a little less likely.\"  Subjects selected such phrases to best describe numerical probability updates.  We examined three hypotheses about the correspondence, and found the most descriptively accur"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1304.1501","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}