{"paper":{"title":"Reliability, Sufficiency, and the Decomposition of Proper Scores","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["physics.data-an"],"primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","authors_text":"Jochen Br\\\"ocker","submitted_at":"2008-06-04T16:38:16Z","abstract_excerpt":"Scoring rules are an important tool for evaluating the performance of probabilistic forecasting schemes. In the binary case, scoring rules (which are strictly proper) allow for a decomposition into terms related to the resolution and to the reliability of the forecast. This fact is particularly well known for the Brier Score. In this paper, this result is extended to forecasts for finite--valued targets. Both resolution and reliability are shown to have a positive effect on the score. It is demonstrated that resolution and reliability are directly related to forecast attributes which are desir"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"0806.0813","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}