{"paper":{"title":"When Do Markets Fully Process Public Information? Evidence from Real-Time Prediction Markets","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"econ.EM","authors_text":"Giovanni Angelini, Luca De Angelis","submitted_at":"2026-06-05T19:38:16Z","abstract_excerpt":"How efficiently do markets update beliefs when public information arrives in rapid sequence? We use a real-time prediction market setting that combines binary payoffs, precisely observed public signals, and high-frequency market data, allowing us to compare market price changes with changes in a benchmark probability implied by publicly available information. We first show that prices are informative and become more accurate as resolution approaches. During the event, prices respond rapidly to public signals and move in the expected direction. However, directional responsiveness is not the sam"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.07811","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2606.07811/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}