{"paper":{"title":"Epidemiology of Model Collapse: Modeling Synthetic Data Contamination via Bilayer SIR Dynamics","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.AI","cs.LG"],"primary_cat":"cs.CL","authors_text":"Xiangyu Wang","submitted_at":"2026-04-14T06:49:30Z","abstract_excerpt":"Training on synthetic data causes model collapse, but existing analyses treat this as single-chain degradation. In reality, the AI ecosystem involves cross-contamination: models ingest synthetic data from other models, produce new synthetic text, and contaminate shared corpora. We propose a bilayer coupled SIR/SIRS framework -- a phenomenological mean-field model treating data corpora and AI models as two interacting populations, each with susceptible, infected, and recovered compartments linked by cross-layer transmission. The SIRS variant (our primary recommendation) incorporates immunity wa"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.05168","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2606.05168/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}