{"paper":{"title":"Adaptive Bayesian credible sets in regression with a Gaussian process prior","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["stat.TH"],"primary_cat":"math.ST","authors_text":"Aad van der Vaart, Suzanne Sniekers","submitted_at":"2015-04-29T19:21:10Z","abstract_excerpt":"We investigate two empirical Bayes methods and a hierarchical Bayes method for adapting the scale of a Gaussian process prior in a nonparametric regression model. We show that all methods lead to a posterior contraction rate that adapts to the smoothness of the true regression function. Furthermore, we show that the corresponding credible sets cover the true regression function whenever this function satisfies a certain extrapolation condition. This condition depends on the specific method, but is implied by a condition of self-similarity. The latter condition is shown to be satisfied with pro"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1504.07972","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}