{"paper":{"title":"Turbulence Physics Governs a Scaling Law for the Machine-Learning Predictability Ceiling in Chaotic Flow","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"physics.flu-dyn","authors_text":"Dixia Fan, Haoyang Hu, Jiashun Guan, Michael S. Triantafyllou, Yunxiao Ren","submitted_at":"2026-06-19T15:36:23Z","abstract_excerpt":"For centuries, the intrinsic chaos of unsteady fluid motion has stood as a formidable barrier to long-term forecasting. While machine learning (ML) has recently emerged as a transformative paradigm for predicting flow evolution, it encounters a pervasive yet unexplained \"performance wall\": an inevitable deterioration in accuracy as the forecast horizon extends. Here, we demonstrate that this deterioration is not a deficiency of model architecture, no matter how state-of-the-art, but a fundamental constraint imposed by the underlying system, which can be understood through turbulence theory est"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.21538","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2606.21538/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}