{"paper":{"title":"When Does Real-World Data Make a Randomized Trial More Efficient, and How Would You Know? A Report Card, an Efficiency Map, and Selection-Aware Inference for Adaptive-TMLE","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"M. Ehsan Karim","submitted_at":"2026-07-02T21:53:11Z","abstract_excerpt":"Augmenting a randomized controlled trial with real-world data promises greater efficiency, but how much a given fusion actually delivers, and how to attach honest uncertainty to that gain, is rarely characterized. Using adaptive targeted maximum likelihood estimation (A-TMLE) as the running example, we develop three reproducible tools for honest evidence from combined trial and real-world data. First, a report card that makes the estimator's data-adaptively learned bias model auditable, measuring how well it recovers the true enrollment-effect surface and attributing the estimator's variance t"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.02787","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.02787/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}