{"paper":{"title":"A cubical formalisation of conditional independence, Bayesian conditioning, and Pearl's d-separation soundness","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.PL"],"primary_cat":"cs.LO","authors_text":"Karen Sargsyan","submitted_at":"2026-06-18T15:17:41Z","abstract_excerpt":"The standard convex-algebra interchange axiom, common to probability-monad formalisations since Stone, is provably too weak to support full Bayesian conditioning. We make this precise in Cubical Agda: finite distributions as a higher inductive type, conditional independence as a cubical path between kernels, recursive Bayesian conditioning as a total function on a full-support fragment. Lifting conditioning to the full HIT exposes a structural mismatch -- the two halves of the rearranged 4-leaf mix carry distinct Bayesian weights related by Bayes' formula, not the single shared inner weight th"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.20351","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2606.20351/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}