{"paper":{"title":"B-CALM: Bias-Limited Bayesian Borrowing for RCT-Anchored Treatment Effects under Covariate Mismatch","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"Amir Asiaee, Samhita Pal","submitted_at":"2026-07-04T21:36:12Z","abstract_excerpt":"Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) identify treatment effects in the randomized trial population but are often too small for reliable heterogeneity estimation; observational studies (OS) are larger but confounded and measured on only partially overlapping covariates. We develop Bayesian Calibrated ALignment under covariate Mismatch (B-CALM), a Bayesian borrowing method for RCT-defined conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. B-CALM maps source-specific covariates into a shared latent state, jointly models trial and observational outcome surfaces, and uses baseline-bias and comp"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.04036","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.04036/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}