{"paper":{"title":"On the Low False Positive Probabilities of Kepler Planet Candidates","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["astro-ph.SR"],"primary_cat":"astro-ph.EP","authors_text":"John Asher Johnson, Timothy D. Morton","submitted_at":"2011-01-28T21:07:33Z","abstract_excerpt":"We present a framework to conservatively estimate the probability that any particular planet-like transit signal observed by the Kepler mission is in fact a planet, prior to any ground-based follow-up efforts. We use Monte Carlo methods based on stellar population synthesis and Galactic structure models, and report a priori false positive probabilities for every Kepler Object of Interest in tabular form, assuming a 20% intrinsic occurrence rate of close-in planets in the radius range 0.5 Rearth < Rp < 20 Rearth. Almost every candidate has FPP <10%, and over half have FPP <5%. This probability "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1101.5630","kind":"arxiv","version":2},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}