{"paper":{"title":"Geometric Scaling of Bayesian Inference in LLMs","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.AI"],"primary_cat":"cs.LG","authors_text":"Naman Agarwal, Siddhartha R. Dalal, Vishal Misra","submitted_at":"2025-12-27T05:29:55Z","abstract_excerpt":"Recent work has shown that small transformers trained in controlled \"wind-tunnel'' settings can implement exact Bayesian inference, and that their training dynamics produce a geometric substrate -- low-dimensional value manifolds and progressively orthogonal keys -- that encodes posterior structure. We investigate whether this geometric signature persists in production-grade language models. Across Pythia, Phi-2, Llama-3, and Mistral families, we find that last-layer value representations organize along a single dominant axis whose position strongly correlates with predictive entropy, and that"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2512.23752","kind":"arxiv","version":5},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2512.23752/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}