{"paper":{"title":"Count data modeling and forecasting of malaria incidence using generalized time series regression","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Adithya B. Somaraj, Karthika M. Satyanarayanan, Praveen D. Chougale, Usha Ananthakumar","submitted_at":"2026-06-24T14:50:25Z","abstract_excerpt":"Malaria remains a major public health concern in many urban regions of India, where timely prediction of malaria incidence is essential for effective surveillance and resource allocation. This study examines count data approaches for understanding and predicting malaria incidence in the Mumbai region. The analysis used monthly $\\textit{Plasmodium vivax}$ surveillance data from the Health Management Information System (HMIS) collected between 2012 and 2019, together with meteorological variables. Initial Poisson regression models suggested strong associations between malaria incidence and envir"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2606.25902","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2606.25902/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}