{"paper":{"title":"Finite-Sample Bounds for Expected Signature Estimation under Weak Dependence","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["math.PR","stat.TH"],"primary_cat":"math.ST","authors_text":"Bryson Schenck","submitted_at":"2026-05-19T22:28:41Z","abstract_excerpt":"The expected signature uniquely determines the law of a random rough path under a moment-growth condition, yet finite-sample bounds for estimating it from a single long dependent trajectory have been lacking. We study a stationary stochastic process whose sample paths can be interpreted as geometric rough paths, partitioned into blocks of equally-spaced observations, and prove a non-asymptotic mean-squared error bound for the block-averaging estimator. Rough-path theory is required for the estimand to be well-defined when paths have H\\\"older regularity at most $1/2$, because Young and Riemann-"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2605.20541","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2605.20541/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}