{"paper":{"title":"Eigenvector rotation precedes eigenvalue-based early-warning signals: a TVP-Kalman approach to detecting critical transitions","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["econ.GN","q-fin.EC"],"primary_cat":"physics.data-an","authors_text":"Gildas Tiwang Ngueuleweu","submitted_at":"2026-07-11T05:25:56Z","abstract_excerpt":"Early-warning signals (EWS) for critical transitions are predominantly based on\n  changes in the dominant eigenvalue of the system's Jacobian-rising variance\n  and lag-1 autocorrelation (AR(1)). However, eigenvalue-based EWS have\n  $O(delta theta^2)$ sensitivity to perturbations, limiting their lead time.\n  We introduce a complementary EWS based on eigenvector rotation, measured by the\n  time-varying elasticity $beta(t) = d log y / d log x$ estimated via a\n  TVP-Kalman filter in log-log space. Since eigenvector sensitivity is\n  $O(delta theta)$, $beta$ is predicted to precede eigenvalue-based "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.11935","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.11935/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}