{"paper":{"title":"Mixture distributions for probabilistic forecasts of disease outbreaks","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Jarad Niemi, Nick Reich, Spencer Wadsworth","submitted_at":"2023-10-18T13:05:55Z","abstract_excerpt":"Collaboration among multiple teams has played a major role in probabilistic forecasting events of influenza outbreaks, the COVID-19 pandemic, other disease outbreaks, and in many other fields. When collecting forecasts from individual teams, ensuring that each team's model represents forecast uncertainty according to the same format allows for direct comparison of forecasts as well as methods of constructing multi-model ensemble forecasts. This paper outlines several common probabilistic forecast representation formats including parametric distributions, sample distributions, bin distributions"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2310.11939","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2310.11939/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}