{"paper":{"title":"Empirical evaluation of Time Series Foundation Models for Day-ahead and Imbalance Electricity Price Forecasting in Belgium","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.LG","cs.SY"],"primary_cat":"eess.SY","authors_text":"Arnaud Verstraeten, Chi Bui, Hussain Kazmi, Maria Margarida Mascarenhas","submitted_at":"2026-05-16T15:30:23Z","abstract_excerpt":"Recent advances in Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) promise zero-shot forecasting capabilities with minimal task-specific training. While these models have shown strong performance across generic benchmarks, their applicability in volatile, complex electricity markets remains underexplored. Addressing this gap, this study provides a systematic empirical evaluation of several TSFMs, specifically Chronos-2 and Chronos-Bolt (developed by Amazon), and TimesFM 2.5 (provided by Google), for forecasting Belgian day-ahead and imbalance electricity prices. For both considered markets, Chronos-2 in"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2605.17045","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2605.17045/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[{"name":"ai_meta_artifact","ran_at":"2026-05-19T22:33:23.830016Z","status":"skipped","version":"1.0.0","findings_count":0},{"name":"claim_evidence","ran_at":"2026-05-19T22:21:57.773703Z","status":"completed","version":"1.0.0","findings_count":0}],"snapshot_sha256":"535f8ae5070ca9e88db11841f558e14fd4bbd5277335eec5a994996c2caaf479"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}