{"paper":{"title":"Reliability Scales Inversely: Bigger Models Compound Mistakes Faster via a Hidden Auto-Regressive Risk Regime","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cs.AI","cs.CL"],"primary_cat":"cs.LG","authors_text":"Kushal Chakrabarti","submitted_at":"2026-06-30T17:51:04Z","abstract_excerpt":"As language models scale, answers start truer but degrade faster: scaling buys capability but erodes reliability. The knowledge-gap account - more data, retrieval, or scale - misses an auto-regressive risk residual that scale sharpens: the model commits to a low-probability token, conditions on it as established, and snowballs. We track this through per-position disagreement $\\delta = \\log p_M - \\log p_O$ against a stronger same-family oracle, whose second moment splits exactly into bias$^2$ $\\mathrm{KL}(p_M \\,\\|\\, p_O)^2$ and risk $\\mathrm{Var}[\\delta]$. We present four findings: (i) under sc"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.18292","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.18292/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}