{"paper":{"title":"Anticipating Continued Global Fertility Decline via Neural Forecasting","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Daniel Ciganda, Facundo Morini, Francisco Piriz, Henrik-Alexander Schubert, Mikko Myrskyl\\\"a, Ugofilippo Basellini","submitted_at":"2026-05-22T17:17:48Z","abstract_excerpt":"The accelerating shift toward low and ultra-low fertility has intensified the debate over whether countries now undergoing rapid decline are approaching stabilization or entering a more persistent low-fertility regime. Existing projection systems answer that question differently because they embed different assumptions about recovery and about the role of external drivers. To provide an empirical benchmark in this debate, we introduce NeuralTFR, an endogenous global forecasting framework based on a recurrent neural network. Drawing on a harmonized panel of historical fertility series from 196 "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2605.23858","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2605.23858/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}