{"paper":{"title":"From population norms to personalized trajectories: interpretable Bayesian forecasting for cognitive decline","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"cs.ET","authors_text":"Brita Elvev{\\aa}g, Maria Sahakyan","submitted_at":"2026-08-04T16:16:21Z","abstract_excerpt":"The timing and rate of cognitive decline vary substantially between individuals, limiting the ability of fixed population-level thresholds to determine whether a new observation represents meaningful change for an individual. We developed Personalized Risk Inference via Sequential Monitoring (PRISM), an interpretable framework for individualized longitudinal forecasting of cognitive decline. PRISM estimates a personalized cognitive baseline from routinely collected demographic, health, and functional variables using an Explainable Boosting Machine, then updates this expectation through Bayesia"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2608.03877","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2608.03877/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}