{"paper":{"title":"Contribution of expert aggregation to temperature prediction part II: Second order bounds with sleeping experts","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"math.OC","authors_text":"L\\'eo Pfitzner (GMAP), Olivier Mestre (GMAP), Olivier Wintenberger (SU)","submitted_at":"2025-06-18T07:52:32Z","abstract_excerpt":"In this paper we improve on the temperature predictions made with (online) Expert Aggregation (EA) [Cesa-Bianchi and Lugosi, 2006] in Part I. In particular, we make the aggregation more reactive, whilst maintaining at least the same root mean squared error and reducing the number of large errors. We have achieved this by using the Sleeping Expert Framework (SEF) [Freund et al., 1997, Devaine et al., 2013], which allows the more efficient use of biased experts (bad on average but which may be good at some point). To deal with the fact that, unlike in Devaine et al. [2013], we do not know in adv"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2506.15216","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2506.15216/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}