{"paper":{"title":"Survival modelling of smartphone trigger data for earthquake parameter estimation in early warning. With applications to 2023 Turkish-Syrian and 2019 Ridgecrest events","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["physics.geo-ph"],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Francesco Finazzi, Luca Aiello, Lucia Paci, Raffaele Argiento","submitted_at":"2023-03-01T20:17:52Z","abstract_excerpt":"Crowdsourced smartphone-based earthquake early warning systems recently emerged as reliable alternatives to the more expensive solutions based on scientific-grade instruments. For instance, during the 2023 Turkish-Syrian deadly event, the system implemented by the Earthquake Network citizen science initiative provided a forewarning up to 25 seconds. We develop a statistical methodology based on a survival mixture cure model which provides full Bayesian inference on epicentre, depth and origin time, and we design an efficient tempering MCMC algorithm to address multi-modality of the posterior d"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2303.00806","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2303.00806/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}