{"paper":{"title":"Recent advances in statistical methodology applied to the Hjort liver index time series (1859-2012) and associated influential factors","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"Recent statistical methods can fruitfully analyze the 150-year Hjort liver index time series for Atlantic cod and its environmental interactions.","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Gudmund H. Hermansen, Nils Lid Hjort, Olav S. Kjesbu","submitted_at":"2026-05-13T18:08:27Z","abstract_excerpt":"Certain recent advances in statistical methodology have promising potential for fruitful use in general biology and the fisheries sciences. This paper reviews and discusses some of the relevant themes, including accurate modelling via focused model selection techniques, dynamic goodness-of-fit testing of processes evolving over time, finding break points for phenomena experiencing changes, prediction uncertainty, and optimal combination of information across diverse sources via confidence distributions. The methods are illustrated for the Hjort liver quality index time series. Its roots lie in"},"claims":{"count":4,"items":[{"kind":"strongest_claim","text":"Certain recent advances in statistical methodology have promising potential for fruitful use in general biology and the fisheries sciences... The methods are illustrated for the Hjort liver quality index time series... Our study offers a detailed examination of this series and how it relates to and interacts with associated factors, including Kola winter temperatures, length distribution parameters, cod mortality, and a certain index related to availability of food.","source":"verdict.strongest_claim","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C1","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"weakest_assumption","text":"That the historical liver index series and associated factors are sufficiently accurate and complete for the advanced dynamic and focused-model techniques to yield reliable inferences without substantial measurement error or selection bias in the archival reconstruction.","source":"verdict.weakest_assumption","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C2","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"one_line_summary","text":"Applies focused model selection, dynamic GOF tests, breakpoint finding, and confidence distributions to the 1859-2012 cod liver index and its links to environmental and biological factors.","source":"verdict.one_line_summary","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C3","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"headline","text":"Recent statistical methods can fruitfully analyze the 150-year Hjort liver index time series for Atlantic cod and its environmental interactions.","source":"verdict.pith_extraction.headline","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C4","attestation":"unclaimed"}],"snapshot_sha256":"6478de58991e06c99c1fcb35dad27af8d6680e13b77aa3fc0040a9dec69487f0"},"source":{"id":"2605.14000","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":"4bde7c2a-8acd-4d67-80af-628fc5fde655","model_set":{"reader":"grok-4.3"},"created_at":"2026-05-15T02:25:28.041542Z","strongest_claim":"Certain recent advances in statistical methodology have promising potential for fruitful use in general biology and the fisheries sciences... The methods are illustrated for the Hjort liver quality index time series... Our study offers a detailed examination of this series and how it relates to and interacts with associated factors, including Kola winter temperatures, length distribution parameters, cod mortality, and a certain index related to availability of food.","one_line_summary":"Applies focused model selection, dynamic GOF tests, breakpoint finding, and confidence distributions to the 1859-2012 cod liver index and its links to environmental and biological factors.","pipeline_version":"pith-pipeline@v0.9.0","weakest_assumption":"That the historical liver index series and associated factors are sufficiently accurate and complete for the advanced dynamic and focused-model techniques to yield reliable inferences without substantial measurement error or selection bias in the archival reconstruction.","pith_extraction_headline":"Recent statistical methods can fruitfully analyze the 150-year Hjort liver index time series for Atlantic cod and its environmental interactions."},"references":{"count":67,"sample":[{"doi":"","year":null,"title":"Aalen, O. O. and Borgan,. Survival and Event History Analysis: A Process Point of View , publisher =","work_id":"9b54881f-2227-4073-a205-251ddb989dc1","ref_index":1,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false},{"doi":"","year":1998,"title":"Selected Papers of Hirotugu Akaike , pages=","work_id":"b61e3696-6135-4ffe-8700-23a46b50fc3f","ref_index":2,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false},{"doi":"","year":null,"title":"Annals of the institute of Statistical Mathematics , volume=","work_id":"80a22986-47d7-4e89-99d3-ad627ffc4fd8","ref_index":3,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false},{"doi":"","year":null,"title":"Brillinger, D. R. , title =","work_id":"9569dfe0-4ec4-4916-9d91-6bdd11ffaecd","ref_index":4,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false},{"doi":"","year":null,"title":"Brockwell, P. 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