{"paper":{"title":"Bayesian fusion forests for heterogeneous treatment effects on survival from randomised and real-world data","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["stat.ML"],"primary_cat":"stat.ME","authors_text":"St\\'ephanie L. van der Pas, Tijn Jacobs, Wessel N. van Wieringen","submitted_at":"2026-07-31T11:12:55Z","abstract_excerpt":"We develop the Bayesian fusion forest, a nonparametric framework to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects on survival outcomes by combining a randomised controlled trial and real-world data. The framework relaxes the unconfoundedness assumption on the real-world data by assuming instead that the treatment effect transports across the two sources. Our method opens up right- and interval-censored outcomes to data fusion. We model the survival time with an accelerated failure time decomposition into a shared baseline prognosis, a source-specific deviation, a treatment effect, and a confounding"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.29295","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.29295/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}