{"paper":{"title":"Forecasting Election Polls with Spin Systems","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["cond-mat.stat-mech","quant-ph"],"primary_cat":"physics.soc-ph","authors_text":"Mikel Sanz, Roman Orus, Ruben Ibarrondo","submitted_at":"2020-07-09T21:10:54Z","abstract_excerpt":"We show that the problem of political forecasting, i.e, predicting the result of elections and referendums, can be mapped to finding the ground state configuration of a classical spin system. Depending on the required prediction, this spin system can be a combination of XY, Ising and vector Potts models, always with two-spin interactions, magnetic fields, and on arbitrary graphs. By reduction to the Ising model our result shows that political forecasting is formally an NP-Hard problem. Moreover, we show that the ground state search can be recasted as Higher-order and Quadratic Unconstrained Bi"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2007.05070","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2007.05070/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}