{"paper":{"title":"A comparison of Bayesian and frequentist confidence intervals in the presence of a late Universe degeneracy","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"astro-ph.CO","authors_text":"Darragh Sherwin, Eoin \\'O Colg\\'ain, M. M. Sheikh-Jabbari, Saeed Pourojaghi","submitted_at":"2023-07-30T23:56:33Z","abstract_excerpt":"Hubble tension is a problem in one-dimensional (1D) posteriors, since local $H_0$ determinations are only sensitive to a single parameter. Projected 1D posteriors for $\\Lambda$CDM cosmological parameters become more non-Gaussian with increasing effective redshift when the model is fitted to redshift-binned data in the late Universe. We explain mathematically why this non-Gaussianity arises and show using observational Hubble data (OHD) that Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) marginalisation leads to 1D posteriors that fail to track the $\\chi^2$ minimum at $68\\%$ confidence level in high redshift "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2307.16349","kind":"arxiv","version":3},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2307.16349/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}