{"paper":{"title":"Global surface temperature trends and the effect of World War II: a parametric analysis (long version)","license":"http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"physics.ao-ph","authors_text":"Bernard Gottschalk","submitted_at":"2017-03-19T21:03:48Z","abstract_excerpt":"We fit 12 independent surface temperature time series (zones of latitude), 6 land- and 6 ocean-based, with a Gaussian (centered around WW2) on a quadratic background. The four polar zones are unusable. Each of the remaining 8 shows evidence of a 0.2-0.3 degree C bump, although one zone is dropped from the final analysis because of an aberrant fit. Thus, we find that a surface temperature increase around WW2 is a robust, statistically significant (5.2 sigma) feature of the data, and must either be a coincidence, due to systematic error that came and went around WW2, or direct evidence of the ef"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"1703.06511","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}