{"paper":{"title":"Time-Varying Home Field Advantage in Football: Learning from a Non-Stationary Causal Process","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["stat.ML"],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Guanyu Hu, Hengrui Cai, Minhao Qi, Weining Shen","submitted_at":"2025-06-13T01:49:17Z","abstract_excerpt":"In sports analytics, home field advantage is a robust phenomenon where the home team wins more games than the away team. However, discovering the causal factors behind home field advantage presents unique challenges due to the non-stationary, time-varying environment of sports matches. In response, we propose a novel causal discovery method, DYnamic Non-stAtionary local M-estimatOrs (DYNAMO), to learn the time-varying causal structures of home field advantage. DYNAMO offers flexibility by integrating various loss functions, making it practical for learning linear and non-linear causal structur"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2506.11399","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2506.11399/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}