{"paper":{"title":"Stellar encounters in the solar neighbourhood and the special case of GJ~710","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"Close stellar encounters within 1 parsec of the Sun occur roughly once every 95 thousand years on average, making the predicted GJ 710 flyby a rare event at once per 50 million years.","cross_cats":["astro-ph.EP","astro-ph.GA"],"primary_cat":"astro-ph.SR","authors_text":"Eloi Fernandez-Puig, Ignasi Ribas, Juan Carlos Morales, J\\'ulia Laguna-Miralles, Pol Guijosa","submitted_at":"2026-05-15T18:00:06Z","abstract_excerpt":"We present a comprehensive characterisation of close stellar encounters in the solar vicinity, with a particular focus on placing the predicted fly-by of GJ~710 in context. This star will come extremely close ($0.0621$\\,pc or $\\sim10^4$\\,AU) to the Solar System in approximately 1.3\\,Myr. Using a linear motion approximation, we identified past and future close stellar encounters within 1\\,pc of the Solar System, using a complete sample of nearby stars. We assessed the completeness of our dataset and applied corrections to the radial velocities, accounting for gravitational redshift and convecti"},"claims":{"count":4,"items":[{"kind":"strongest_claim","text":"We report a rate of encounters within 1 pc and within 0.47 Myr of 10.6 ± 4.5 per Myr and star, implying an average of one encounter every 95+71-28 kyr. Additionally, from the resulting distribution, we can evaluate the relative frequency of the upcoming GJ~710 fly-by, which is found to be quite rare, at a rate of one per ∼50 Myr.","source":"verdict.strongest_claim","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C1","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"weakest_assumption","text":"The sample of nearby stars is complete after accounting for binaries and common proper motion pairs, and the applied corrections to radial velocities for gravitational redshift and convective blueshift do not introduce significant new biases in the derived encounter parameters.","source":"verdict.weakest_assumption","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C2","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"one_line_summary","text":"Reports a close stellar encounter rate of 10.6 ± 4.5 per Myr per star within 1 pc for stars in the solar neighborhood, with the GJ 710 approach being rarer than average at one per ~50 Myr.","source":"verdict.one_line_summary","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C3","attestation":"unclaimed"},{"kind":"headline","text":"Close stellar encounters within 1 parsec of the Sun occur roughly once every 95 thousand years on average, making the predicted GJ 710 flyby a rare event at once per 50 million years.","source":"verdict.pith_extraction.headline","status":"machine_extracted","claim_id":"C4","attestation":"unclaimed"}],"snapshot_sha256":"99db33c3c6ee29112047543ce6485a498f5c415989edee448495187d6fda6b39"},"source":{"id":"2605.16496","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":"f1004384-8ae4-4006-9f34-59a1d1205dc5","model_set":{"reader":"grok-4.3"},"created_at":"2026-05-19T21:47:46.211812Z","strongest_claim":"We report a rate of encounters within 1 pc and within 0.47 Myr of 10.6 ± 4.5 per Myr and star, implying an average of one encounter every 95+71-28 kyr. Additionally, from the resulting distribution, we can evaluate the relative frequency of the upcoming GJ~710 fly-by, which is found to be quite rare, at a rate of one per ∼50 Myr.","one_line_summary":"Reports a close stellar encounter rate of 10.6 ± 4.5 per Myr per star within 1 pc for stars in the solar neighborhood, with the GJ 710 approach being rarer than average at one per ~50 Myr.","pipeline_version":"pith-pipeline@v0.9.0","weakest_assumption":"The sample of nearby stars is complete after accounting for binaries and common proper motion pairs, and the applied corrections to radial velocities for gravitational redshift and convective blueshift do not introduce significant new biases in the derived encounter parameters.","pith_extraction_headline":"Close stellar encounters within 1 parsec of the Sun occur roughly once every 95 thousand years on average, making the predicted GJ 710 flyby a rare event at once per 50 million years."},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2605.16496/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[{"name":"doi_title_agreement","ran_at":"2026-05-19T22:01:23.161641Z","status":"completed","version":"1.0.0","findings_count":0},{"name":"doi_compliance","ran_at":"2026-05-19T22:01:03.075153Z","status":"completed","version":"1.0.0","findings_count":0},{"name":"ai_meta_artifact","ran_at":"2026-05-19T19:33:23.098789Z","status":"skipped","version":"1.0.0","findings_count":0},{"name":"claim_evidence","ran_at":"2026-05-19T19:21:56.986629Z","status":"completed","version":"1.0.0","findings_count":0}],"snapshot_sha256":"f60ba5b266d412eba07993fae2aadabeba1d60aca02ed3176cb82695dac46522"},"references":{"count":44,"sample":[{"doi":"","year":2002,"title":"Amelin, Y ., Krot, A. N., Hutcheon, I. D., & Ulyanov, A. A. 2002, Science, 297, 1678","work_id":"e22175cc-1ca6-4a49-93a5-4ad154bb65ae","ref_index":1,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false},{"doi":"","year":2023,"title":"2023, A&A, 674, A32","work_id":"32d138a5-f068-44f2-8eff-3114506bd170","ref_index":2,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false},{"doi":"","year":2020,"title":"Bagnulo, S. & Landstreet, J. D. 2020, A&A, 643, A134","work_id":"0d085dc8-0f75-450a-a00e-000bc38bc2f6","ref_index":3,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false},{"doi":"","year":2015,"title":"Bailer-Jones, C. A. L. 2015, A&A, 575, A35","work_id":"b287aaff-98ae-435d-b525-9c46095fc873","ref_index":4,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false},{"doi":"","year":2018,"title":"Bailer-Jones, C. A. L. 2018, A&A, 609, A8","work_id":"f8e290fc-db25-4f1f-9d17-5eaed575ebc7","ref_index":5,"cited_arxiv_id":"","is_internal_anchor":false}],"resolved_work":44,"snapshot_sha256":"15a96bf48e9364661be7c4705c2d8ef9be70058d8ba53b78db22243d389b0d8f","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":2,"snapshot_sha256":"13be8b49013017ff31608fe52a01c5507943fa3b31d5f71800a3b134038c332a"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}