{"paper":{"title":"How long can you trust a Starlink TLE? An empirical comparison of SGP4 and high-fidelity propagation against operator-updated truth across a megaconstellation","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":["astro-ph.IM","physics.space-ph"],"primary_cat":"astro-ph.EP","authors_text":"Dimitrije Jankovic","submitted_at":"2026-05-19T13:43:28Z","abstract_excerpt":"We characterise position-error behaviour of Two-Line Element (TLE) propagation against operator-updated truth on Starlink, sweeping 24,641 next-TLE-truth pairs across 501 satellites stratified by altitude shell (540, 550, 560 km) and platform generation (v1.0, v1.5, v2-mini) over April 2026. Each pair is propagated with SGP4 and GMAT at high fidelity (EGM2008 $70\\times70$, NRLMSISE-00 drag, Sun and Moon third-body gravity, conical-shadow SRP), then compared against the operator's next TLE as proxy truth. Three findings: First, position error follows a per-cell power law $\\lVert\\Delta\\mathbf{r}"},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2605.19850","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2605.19850/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}