{"paper":{"title":"An Upper Bound on the Probability That a User Encounters an Undiscovered Defect","license":"http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/","headline":"","cross_cats":[],"primary_cat":"stat.AP","authors_text":"Carlos M. Hern\\'andez-Su\\'arez, Karla Hern\\'andez-Cuevas","submitted_at":"2026-07-19T04:07:43Z","abstract_excerpt":"Before releasing software to a general population, a developer must weigh a single question: if we ship now, what fraction of users will still hit a defect? This is not a question about how many defects remain, nor whether any particular defect is present -- the quantities the reliability literature has long estimated -- but about a different and, for a release decision, more consequential one: the probability that a user encounters a defect at all. We give a direct, distribution-free answer. Reading each beta-test report as a draw from the user population and each distinct defect as a class, "},"claims":{"count":0,"items":[],"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"source":{"id":"2607.17061","kind":"arxiv","version":1},"verdict":{"id":null,"model_set":{},"created_at":null,"strongest_claim":"","one_line_summary":"","pipeline_version":null,"weakest_assumption":"","pith_extraction_headline":""},"integrity":{"clean":true,"summary":{"advisory":0,"critical":0,"by_detector":{},"informational":0},"endpoint":"/pith/2607.17061/integrity.json","findings":[],"available":true,"detectors_run":[],"snapshot_sha256":"c28c3603d3b5d939e8dc4c7e95fa8dfce3d595e45f758748cecf8e644a296938"},"references":{"count":0,"sample":[],"resolved_work":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57","internal_anchors":0},"formal_canon":{"evidence_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"author_claims":{"count":0,"strong_count":0,"snapshot_sha256":"258153158e38e3291e3d48162225fcdb2d5a3ed65a07baac614ab91432fd4f57"},"builder_version":"pith-number-builder-2026-05-17-v1"}